BY: Tana Malinga

• Brendan Jacobs, Head of Agribusiness at Business & Commercial Banking at Standard Bank South Africa

South Africa’s farmers are entering a critical agricultural season with one message cutting through the noise: the pressure is real, but there is no need for panic at the dinner table.

While higher interest rates, fuel and fertiliser costs, global uncertainty and weather risks continue to test the farming economy, the latest assessment from Brendan Jacobs, Head of Agribusiness at Business & Commercial Banking at Standard Bank South Africa, points to a sector that continues to adapt, innovate and protect the country’s food supply.

In May, Jacobs warned that the South African Reserve Bank’s 25-basis-point increase, taking the repo rate to 7% and prime lending rate to 10.5%, arrived at a difficult moment for agriculture. Farmers were already carrying significant debt while facing higher input costs and weaker commodity prices. The additional cost of borrowing therefore placed further pressure on farming businesses.
Fuel and fertiliser remain particularly important because international oil-market volatility and the conflict in the Middle East can feed through the agricultural value chain. Jacobs also flagged the possibility of an El Niño weather event later in 2026, reinforcing the need for farmers to improve efficiency while maintaining production.
But the picture has since gained some breathing room.

By July, the Reserve Bank had kept interest rates unchanged, a decision Jacobs described as welcome relief for farmers. Avoiding another increase meant that producers with debt were spared an additional rise in their cost base at a time when production, transport and other operating expenses were already elevated. More importantly for households, the latest food-price figures cited by Jacobs offered another reason for measured confidence. Consumer food-price inflation eased to 1.4% in June 2026, from 1.6% in May, supported by strong supplies of grains, fruit and vegetables.

That does not mean farmers have escaped the pressures. It means the food system is demonstrating its ability to absorb shocks.
Jacobs’ broader 2026 message has consistently centred on resilience, innovation, financial discipline and smarter decision-making. He has argued that modern agricultural resilience is no longer simply about surviving difficult seasons, but about building profitable and sustainable businesses capable of adapting to volatility.
For consumers, this distinction matters.

Higher farming costs can create upward pressure through the food value chain, but current conditions do not point to an automatic or abnormal food-price surge. Strong agricultural supplies and the ability of farmers and value-chain participants to adapt remain important buffers. The July easing in food inflation provides tangible evidence of that balancing effect.
South Africa’s agricultural story, therefore, is not one of retreat. It is a story of farmers adjusting their sails as conditions change, managing costs, embracing innovation, protecting productivity and working with partners across the value chain.

From the farm gate to the family kitchen, the immediate message is one of cautious confidence rather than alarm.
The challenges are significant, but so is the sector’s capacity to respond.
And as Jacobs’ latest assessment suggests, South Africa’s agricultural machinery continues to turn- planting, producing and supplying food while navigating an unpredictable economic and global environment.

The harvest, in other words, remains bigger than the headline risks.

IMAGE : BY STANDARD BANK